Green Bear Decision Snapshot
Before you commit more, find out what the evidence actually supports.
For founders and operators deciding whether to continue, scale, fund, narrow or stop a commercial, capital or execution initiative. In about ten minutes, get a provisional recommendation, the evidence it rests on and the smallest test that could change it.
Best for a decision due within 30 days that would commit more time, money, people or external credibility. The result is an automated first assessment, not a personal review by Jörn. A real case requires contact details and is delivered to both you and Green Bear; the completed examples can be explored without sharing a case.
Interactive proof of work
See what Green Bear notices that activity reports miss.
Each example is a complete one-minute proof of the method. Open one to see the decision shift, authorised action and return rule.
CommercialThirty demos, positive feedback—and still no customer commitment
The team wants to assign two engineers to another month of product work after thirty demos and repeated positive feedback.
Meetings and praise look like momentum, but no buyer has accepted a paid pilot, supplied evaluation data or agreed a start date.
Do not expand the build commitment yet. Test whether one qualified buyer will make a reciprocal commitment.
Present the same bounded pilot to five qualified buyers and record an accept, decline, later-with-date or wrong-owner outcome.
Run only the five-buyer commitment test. Do not add another engineering sprint yet.
Do not treat demos, praise or follow-up questions as proof of buyer commitment.
Prepare the accepted pilot without widening the segment or scope.
Stop scaling outreach and revise the problem, segment or offer before more product work.
CapitalInvestor interest, a strong story—and four months of runway
The founders want to launch a broad fundraise after encouraging investor conversations while runway is tightening.
Investor attention is not financing readiness. The decision depends on runway, a financeable milestone and evidence that survives diligence.
Prepare the financing case and survival boundary before treating interest as permission to launch the round.
Ask a small set of relevant investors to react to the same round, use of funds and milestone, and record the objections that block commitment.
Prepare one financeable milestone, a use-of-funds case and a survival boundary for targeted investor testing.
Do not launch a broad fundraise or present investor attention as financing readiness.
Open the bounded raise with the validated milestone and objections resolved.
Protect runway and strengthen or change the financeable object before approaching more investors.
ExecutionThe roadmap shipped—but the required business outcome did not move
The team has delivered the planned work, yet customer adoption and commercial movement remain unchanged.
Completed deliverables are not the same as an achieved outcome. The missing link may be ownership, adoption or an unresolved decision.
Stop expanding scope. Name the outcome, owner and decision boundary that the delivered work was supposed to change.
Choose one customer workflow, one accountable owner and one observable adoption threshold for the next operating cycle.
Run one bounded adoption cycle with a named owner and observable threshold.
Do not approve another roadmap on delivery completion alone.
Continue only the work that demonstrably moves the customer workflow.
Stop expanding scope and correct ownership, adoption or the underlying proposition.
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Step 1 of 4 · Describe
Step 1 · Start small
Describe one decision—not the whole company.
What are you considering committing more time, money, people or credibility to? Short, rough answers are enough. We will structure the situation and show you what we understood before analysing anything.
Write naturally. Include observations, missing results or contradictions when you can; the system will structure the case for you.
We ask for named sources later, and only for claims that could change the decision. Do not paste full confidential documents or personal data.
Where should we send the result?
Your real case is not anonymous. The completed Snapshot is emailed to you and Green Bear, your contact and case ID are recorded in HubSpot, and a case copy is retained for 180 days for product analysis and relevant follow-up.
What makes a useful decision description?
Rough notes are enough. Include what you can; leave the rest unknown.
- Decision and commitmentWhat must be decided, and what time, money, people or credibility would it commit?
- OutcomeWhat observable business result should the decision create?
- BoundaryWho must decide, and by when?
- Observed evidenceWhat has actually happened, including counts and time windows?
- Missing or negative evidenceWhat expected commitment or result has not happened?
- Uncertainty or contradictionWhat remains unknown or conflicts with the positive signals?
We must decide whether to [decision and commitment] by [date], in order to achieve [observable outcome]. So far, we have observed [evidence]. We have not yet observed [missing evidence]. The main contradiction or uncertainty is [unknown].